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Enterprises must be cautious in business strategy.

 At the 2010 Investment Conference held at the HCMC, Ph.D Le Duc Thuy, chairman of the national Finance Supervision Committee, said Vietnamese economy will speed up with many opportunities in the last months of this year. Aside from the above joy, enterprises should be more cautious in their business strategy.

Optimism in CPI

Statistics showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in the first half of this year surged 4.78% from the last months of 2009. This was the lowest increase level in the past 6 years. CPI in June showed the lowest index, up 0.22% only. The other optimistic signal from the HCMC Statistics Office showed that CPI in the city in July decreased 0.09% from June. “As the country’s key economic zone, decrease in CPI in the HCMC will impact on the country’s index”, said Dominic Scriven, general director of Dragon Capital.

Economists assessed that Vietnam would gain many the proposed goals of macro-economic stability, inflation control at 7-8% and growth rate at 6.5% so on. The country’s economy has recovered with a fast speed from 2009.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry estimated that prices of basic materials and energy in the last months of this year will stabilize or lightly decrease. Specifically, steel price will decrease whilst prices of animal food will stabilize in the next month and rice price will keep plunging. Therefore, CPI in the third quarter will surge about 0.5-0.7%.

Many challenges

With many good signals but the country economy will face many obstacles in the last months of 2010. Dam Bich Thuy, general director of ANZ Bank explained, UE nations have encountered debt crisis, cutting expenditure, withdrawing or stopping stimulus packages. This will make the global growth slow down and increase interest rates.

In the coming time, import demand of Vietnam’s big markets of EU, US and Japan will decrease.

Aside from natural calamity situation, power shortage will impact on production and financial issue will make many enterprises worry. According to Thuy, the credit growth rate in Vietnam is too low, especially credit in VND. This impacts on the whole year’s economic growth.

In the last months of this year, challenges of economic recovery will bigger than inflation challenge. This makes the Government set out strong and right measures for currency policies. “We must unbind administration barriers for inter-banking market, effective solve relation between budget and State bank, offer payment means and assure payment for banking system… The above deeds will contribute to lessen deposit and lending interest rates, surge competitive capacity of commercial banks and help increase the country’s economic growth”, Thuy concluded.

Reported by T.Khiem – Translated by A.C